Middlesbrough 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Riverside Stadium to face Middlesbrough in Championship, Regular Season - 41. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Middlesbrough (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Middlesbrough's home record at Riverside Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Middlesbrough are significantly better at Riverside Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hull City have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Hull City's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form ledger tips toward Middlesbrough. A 0.70 PPG lead over Hull City (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 49% versus Hull City 26%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Middlesbrough 41% | Hull City 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.02 xG and Hull City 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.097 / defence 0.977 | Hull City attack 0.790 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.087. Data: 39 Middlesbrough games / 40 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 39% | Draw 32% | Hull City 29%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Hull City 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Middlesbrough at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 50% | Hull City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 39% | Draw 32% | Hull City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Middlesbrough 1.02 / Hull City 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.097 / def 0.977 | Hull City attack 0.790 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.041 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Hull City xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Hull City kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Middlesbrough 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Hull City part of?
Middlesbrough vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 39% chance of winning, Hull City a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Middlesbrough and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Middlesbrough and Hull City in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 1.10x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.79x) against Middlesbrough's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.12
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
1.86
0.84
Hull City xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 0.84 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Middlesbrough come into this having played 39 games, going 18W 8D 13L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 0.97 PPG from 39 outings (10W 8D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Middlesbrough carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Middlesbrough's home form reads 12W 2D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Middlesbrough are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.74 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 26%.
Defensively: Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Hull City in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 18W 8D 13L in their last 39 games (1.59 PPG), while Hull City have gone 10W 8D 21L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Hull City away?
Middlesbrough's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 2.00 PPG; Hull City away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hull City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Hull City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won 1-4 on 5 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Middlesbrough have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
4
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 5, Hull City have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Hull City 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 53%, Hull City 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Middlesbrough and 16% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Hull City in 42%; Hull City in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 21% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 16% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Hull City tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hull City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Middlesbrough 0-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.02 xG and Hull City 0.84 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Middlesbrough fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Hull City attack 0.79 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 39% | Draw 32% | Hull City 29%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 41%, Hull City 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Middlesbrough arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Hull City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.