Ipswich 2-2 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 31 as Ipswich welcome West Brom to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Ipswich have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
West Brom — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, West Brom have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ipswich) versus 1.60 (West Brom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ipswich, 1 for West Brom and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with West Brom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
West Brom in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 52% versus West Brom 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 59% | West Brom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.65 xG and West Brom 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.284 / defence 1.112 | West Brom attack 0.869 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.192. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Ipswich games / 75 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 49% | Draw 25% | West Brom 27%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | West Brom 3.70. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 80% | West Brom 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 49% | Draw 25% | West Brom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Ipswich 1.65 / West Brom 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.284 / def 1.112 | West Brom attack 0.869 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.15
West Brom xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs West Brom kick off?
Ipswich vs West Brom kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs West Brom?
Ipswich 2 - 2 West Brom.
Where is Ipswich vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs West Brom part of?
Ipswich vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 49% chance of winning, West Brom a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ipswich and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and West Brom?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 0 | West Brom 1W.
What form are Ipswich and West Brom in?
Ipswich (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. West Brom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.28) and West Brom's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.07
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.80
1.15
West Brom xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
5%
19.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ipswich and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.15 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich come into this having played 75 games, going 45W 22D 8L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.52 PPG from 75 outings (32W 18D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of West Brom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ipswich's home form reads 26W 9D 2L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 1.11 points per game from 37 outings (11W 8D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.33 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; West Brom in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and West Brom in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 45W 22D 8L in their last 75 games (2.09 PPG), while West Brom have gone 32W 18D 25L in their last 75 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or West Brom away?
Ipswich's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.35 PPG; West Brom away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Ipswich or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, West Brom in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ipswich's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ipswich
2
Draws
1
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and West Brom?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 1, West Brom have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when West Brom 0-0 Ipswich.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 54%, West Brom 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Ipswich) and 43% (West Brom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ipswich's recent matches and 54% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Ipswich's matches and 43% of West Brom's.
Do Ipswich and West Brom tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, West Brom in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich and West Brom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich and West Brom finished level at 2-2 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.65 xG and West Brom 1.15 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. West Brom outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.28 / defence 1.11 against West Brom attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 29/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 49% | Draw 25% | West Brom 27%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 59%, West Brom 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
West Brom's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ipswich (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.