Ipswich 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Hull City travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 3 March 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ipswich have posted 7W 3D 0L at Portman Road — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road.
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hull City's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 2.20 PPG, Hull City 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ipswich, 0 for Hull City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ipswich in-play tendencies (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hull City in-play tendencies (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 59% versus Hull City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 56% | Hull City 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.36 xG and Hull City 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.255 / defence 0.767 | Hull City attack 1.284 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.204. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hull City have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Ipswich's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Ipswich games / 80 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 39% | Draw 29% | Hull City 31%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Hull City 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Ipswich 40% | Hull City 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 39% | Draw 29% | Hull City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Ipswich 1.36 / Hull City 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.255 / def 0.767 | Hull City attack 1.284 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Hull City xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Hull City kick off?
Ipswich vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Hull City?
Ipswich 1 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Ipswich vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Hull City part of?
Ipswich vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 39% chance of winning, Hull City a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ipswich and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Hull City?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 2W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Ipswich and Hull City in?
Ipswich (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ipswich's attack at 1.25x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
39%
2.53
29%
3.40
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.55
1.19
Hull City xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.19 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Ipswich have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 21W 19D 31L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 27W 16D 28L from 71 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.15 PPG, Hull City on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ipswich have posted 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (12W 8D 14L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 14W 7D 13L from 34 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.24 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Hull City in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 21W 19D 31L in their last 71 games (1.15 PPG), while Hull City have gone 27W 16D 28L in their last 71 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.29 PPG; Hull City away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ipswich have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2023, when Ipswich won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ipswich's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Hull City?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Hull City have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Ipswich 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Hull City?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 50%, Hull City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ipswich) and 41% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 32%; Ipswich have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ipswich's recent matches and 47% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Ipswich's recent games and 41% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Hull City tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hull City in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Hull City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Hull City 1-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.36 xG and Hull City 1.19 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.25 / defence 0.77 against Hull City attack 1.28 / defence 0.83, drawn from 33/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 39% | Draw 29% | Hull City 31%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Hull City 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Hull City's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.15 PPG, Hull City 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.