Hull City 1-2 West Brom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates West Brom at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs West Brom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus West Brom in Championship (matchday 15). Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Current Form

Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Hull City have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

West Brom have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

West Brom away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Hull City, 1.20 for West Brom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hull City's last 10 home games and West Brom's last 10 away games) — Hull City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, West Brom in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to West Brom, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Hull City 1–1 West Brom — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. West Brom have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 62% versus West Brom 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 52% | West Brom 42%). Note also that West Brom surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Hull City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.10 xG and West Brom 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.925 / defence 1.071 | West Brom attack 1.140 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 0.999. Data: built from Hull City's last 60 games and West Brom's last 60.

Result probabilities: Hull City 32% | Draw 31% | West Brom 37%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.16 | Draw 3.24 | West Brom 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (West Brom 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | West Brom 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights