Hull City 2-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swansea make the trip to MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MKM Stadium this season.
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Swansea away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hull City lead 2W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Swansea 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 44% | Swansea 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.32 xG and Swansea 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.929 / defence 1.157 | Swansea attack 0.836 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.140. Data: 73 Hull City games / 74 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 41% | Draw 29% | Swansea 30%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Swansea 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 50% | Swansea 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 41% | Draw 29% | Swansea 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Hull City 1.32 / Swansea 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.929 / def 1.157 | Swansea attack 0.836 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Hull City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Swansea xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Swansea kick off?
Hull City vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Swansea?
Hull City 2 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Hull City vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Swansea part of?
Hull City vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 41% chance of winning, Swansea a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hull City and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Swansea?
Record (9 meetings): Hull City 2W | Draws 4 | Swansea 3W.
What form are Hull City and Swansea in?
Hull City (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Swansea (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.93x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.84x) against Hull City's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 73/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.42
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.43
1.10
Swansea xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Hull City and 1.10 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City come into this having played 73 games, going 26W 18D 29L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.33 PPG from 73 outings (27W 16D 30L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Hull City against 1.33 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hull City's home form reads 12W 9D 14L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.03 points per game from 35 outings (10W 6D 19L).
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.12 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Swansea in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 26W 18D 29L in their last 73 games (1.32 PPG), while Swansea have gone 27W 16D 30L in their last 73 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Swansea away?
Hull City's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.29 PPG; Swansea away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
4
Draws
3
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Swansea have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hull City 2-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 57%, Swansea 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hull City) and 49% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 31% of games; Swansea in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Hull City's recent matches and 46% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hull City's recent games and 49% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Swansea tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Swansea in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Swansea 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Swansea 2-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.32 xG and Swansea 1.10 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Swansea attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 41% | Draw 29% | Swansea 30%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 44%, Swansea 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, Swansea 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.