Hull City 3-1 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hull City at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Sheffield Wednesday in Championship, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hull City have posted 4W 1D 5L at MKM Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Hull City. A 1.20 PPG lead over Sheffield Wednesday (1.30 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hull City lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Sheffield Wednesday goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Sheffield Wednesday 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 46% | Sheffield Wednesday 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.96 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.082 / defence 1.357 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.645 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.177. Sheffield Wednesday bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 84 Hull City games / 84 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 58% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 18%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Sheffield Wednesday 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 60% | Sheffield Wednesday 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 58% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Hull City 1.96 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.082 / def 1.357 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.645 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Hull City (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sheffield Wednesday xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Hull City 3 - 1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 58% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday?
Record (5 meetings): Hull City 2W | Draws 1 | Sheffield Wednesday 2W.
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hull City's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Wednesday's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (0.65x) against Hull City's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 84/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.21
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.99
1.03
Sheffield Wednesday xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
38.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Hull City and 1.03 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 84 games, going 31W 19D 34L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Sheffield Wednesday sit at 0.83 PPG from 84 outings (16W 22D 46L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Hull City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 14W 10D 17L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Sheffield Wednesday have taken 0.95 points per game from 41 outings (10W 9D 22L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 0.99 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 84 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 31W 19D 34L in their last 84 games (1.33 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 16W 22D 46L in their last 84 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Hull City's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.27 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
2
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 6 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Sheffield Wednesday have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Hull City 3-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 61%, Sheffield Wednesday 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Hull City) and 63% (Sheffield Wednesday). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 29% of games; Sheffield Wednesday in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Sheffield Wednesday?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hull City's games and 51% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of Hull City's matches and 63% of Sheffield Wednesday's.
Do Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Sheffield Wednesday 3-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.96 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.03 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.08 / defence 1.36 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.65 / defence 1.39, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 58% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 18%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 46%, Sheffield Wednesday 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.