Hull City 0-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 30 as Hull City welcome Preston to The MKM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at The MKM Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Preston — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Hull City) versus 1.40 (Preston). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hull City, 0 for Preston and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 4–1 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Preston trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 29% versus Preston 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 25% | Preston 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.03 xG and Preston 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.961 / defence 1.104 | Preston attack 0.773 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.129. Data: 28 Hull City games / 29 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 36% | Draw 31% | Preston 33%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Preston 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 40% | Preston 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 36% | Draw 31% | Preston 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Hull City 1.03 / Preston 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.961 / def 1.104 | Preston attack 0.773 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Hull City (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Preston xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Preston kick off?
Hull City vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Preston?
Hull City 0 - 1 Preston.
Where is Hull City vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Preston part of?
Hull City vs Preston is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 36% chance of winning, Preston a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hull City and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Preston?
Record (1 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 0 | Preston 0W.
What form are Hull City and Preston in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Preston (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.96) and Preston's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.23
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.99
0.96
Preston xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Hull City and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Hull City and 0.96 for Preston, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City's recent record stands at 9W 5D 14L from 28 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Preston, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 8L across 28 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.14 PPG, Preston on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 5W 3D 6L from 14 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Preston's away record stands at 4W 4D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.14 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Preston in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 9W 5D 14L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Preston have gone 9W 11D 8L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Preston away?
Hull City's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.29 PPG; Preston away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Hull City or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Preston in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Hull City won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Preston specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hull City
4
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Preston?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 4, Preston have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Preston 0-3 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Preston?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Preston see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 36%, Preston 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Hull City) and 43% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 36% of games; Preston in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Hull City's recent matches and 36% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Hull City's recent games and 43% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Preston tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Preston in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Preston defy the odds to beat Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.03 xG and Preston 0.96 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Preston attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 36% | Draw 31% | Preston 33%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Preston win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 25%, Preston 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Preston's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.14 PPG, Preston 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.