Hull City 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 12 as Hull City welcome Charlton to MKM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 October 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's home record at MKM Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hull City at 1.70 PPG versus Charlton's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Hull City in-play and half-time data (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus Charlton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 40% | Charlton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.34 xG and Charlton 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.176 / defence 1.108 | Charlton attack 0.903 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.146. Data: 57 Hull City games / 11 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 41% | Draw 27% | Charlton 32%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hull City 60% | Charlton 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 41% | Draw 27% | Charlton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Hull City 1.34 / Charlton 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.176 / def 1.108 | Charlton attack 0.903 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Hull City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Charlton xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Charlton kick off?
Hull City vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Charlton?
Hull City 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Hull City vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Charlton part of?
Hull City vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 41% chance of winning, Charlton a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hull City and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Charlton in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hull City's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.71
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.48
1.15
Charlton xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hull City and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hull City and 1.15 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City's recent record stands at 17W 16D 24L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 29W 14D 14L across 57 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charlton by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hull City heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 9W 9D 11L from 29 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 11W 7D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.37 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Charlton in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Charlton have gone 29W 14D 14L in their last 57 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.24 PPG; Charlton away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Hull City or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Charlton in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hull City
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Charlton 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 62%, Charlton 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Hull City) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 41%; Hull City have failed to score in 31% of games; Charlton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hull City's recent matches and 34% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Hull City's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Charlton tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Charlton in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.34 xG and Charlton 1.15 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.18 / defence 1.11 against Charlton attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 41% | Draw 27% | Charlton 32%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 40%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.