Hull City 0-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 36%, yet in-form Blackburn provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hull City vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 18 as Hull City welcome Blackburn to The MKM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Hull City are significantly better at The MKM Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Blackburn's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Hull City's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hull City, 1 for Blackburn and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Hull City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Blackburn trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 37% versus Blackburn 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 39% | Blackburn 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.17 xG and Blackburn 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.869 / defence 1.321 | Blackburn attack 0.778 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.130. Data: 62 Hull City games / 63 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 36% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 36%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Blackburn 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Blackburn 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 36% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Hull City 1.17 / Blackburn 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.869 / def 1.321 | Blackburn attack 0.778 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Blackburn xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Blackburn kick off?
Hull City vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Hull City 0 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Hull City vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Blackburn part of?
Hull City vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 36% chance of winning, Blackburn a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hull City and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackburn?
Record (2 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 1W.
What form are Hull City and Blackburn in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Blackburn (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hull City's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.55
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.33
1.16
Blackburn xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hull City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Hull City and 1.16 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 11D 31L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.55 PPG from 62 outings (28W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 11W 4D 16L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (10W 7D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.27 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 11D 31L in their last 62 games (1.15 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 28W 12D 22L in their last 62 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Blackburn away?
Hull City's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.19 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Hull City or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Blackburn in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 5, Blackburn have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Blackburn 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Blackburn?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 39%, Blackburn 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 39% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 45% of games; Blackburn in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hull City's recent matches and 39% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 39% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Blackburn tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Blackburn defy the odds to beat Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.17 xG and Blackburn 1.16 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.87 / defence 1.32 against Blackburn attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 36% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 36%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 39%, Blackburn 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Blackburn's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Blackburn arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.