Fulham 2-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hull City at 56%, yet in-form Fulham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Hull City meet at Craven Cottage in Championship, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Fulham (all games): 2W 1D 0L across 3 Championship fixtures this term — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Fulham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Fulham's 2.33 PPG return is 1.33 points per game ahead of Hull City's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Hull City — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 100% and Hull City 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fulham 67% | Hull City 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.01 xG and Hull City 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.953 / defence 1.094 | Hull City attack 1.123 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 0.924 / away 1.522. Data: 3 Fulham games / 3 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 19% | Draw 25% | Hull City 56%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Hull City 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fulham (2.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 100% | Hull City 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 19% | Draw 25% | Hull City 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Fulham 1.01 / Hull City 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.953 / def 1.094 | Hull City attack 1.123 / def 1.148 | league avg home 0.924 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Hull City (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Hull City xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Hull City kick off?
Fulham vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Hull City?
Fulham 2 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Fulham vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Hull City part of?
Fulham vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 19% chance of winning, Hull City a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fulham and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Hull City in?
Fulham (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.12x) against Fulham's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
19%
5.29
25%
4.02
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.88
1.87
Hull City xG
5.29
19%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
34.28
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Fulham and 1.87 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Hull City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Hull City in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Hull City have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Hull City?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Hull City have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Hull City 0-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Hull City?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Fulham, 33% for Hull City — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fulham and 67% for Hull City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hull City in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Fulham's games and 33% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fulham's matches and 67% of Hull City's.
Do Fulham and Hull City tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hull City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Hull City 2-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.01 xG and Hull City 1.87 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hull City landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Hull City attack 1.12 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 19% | Draw 25% | Hull City 56%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Fulham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 67%, Hull City 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Hull City's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Fulham conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.