Derby 0-0 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Stoke City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stoke City make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 46. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Derby's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pride Park Stadium this season.
Stoke City's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Stoke City have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Derby's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Derby 2W, Stoke City 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Stoke City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Stoke City — key trading statistics (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 46% versus Stoke City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 47% | Stoke City 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.27 xG and Stoke City 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.745 / defence 0.904 | Stoke City attack 0.882 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.004. Derby's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stoke City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Derby games / 91 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 23%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Stoke City 4.35. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 10% | Stoke City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Derby 1.27 / Stoke City 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.745 / def 0.904 | Stoke City attack 0.882 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Derby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Stoke City xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Stoke City kick off?
Derby vs Stoke City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby 0 - 0 Stoke City.
Where is Derby vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Stoke City part of?
Derby vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 48% chance of winning, Stoke City a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Derby and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stoke City?
Record (3 meetings): Derby 2W | Draws 0 | Stoke City 1W.
What form are Derby and Stoke City in?
Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Stoke City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.74x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (0.88x) against Derby's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 45/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.44
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Derby xG
Total xG
2.07
0.80
Stoke City xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Derby and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Derby and 0.80 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 91 games, going 41W 18D 32L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.16 PPG from 91 outings (27W 25D 39L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Derby against 1.16 for Stoke City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 24W 8D 13L across 45 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 0.96 points per game from 45 outings (11W 10D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.03 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 41W 18D 32L in their last 91 games (1.55 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 27W 25D 39L in their last 91 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Stoke City away?
Derby's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.78 PPG; Stoke City away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Derby or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Stoke City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stoke City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
2
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stoke City?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Stoke City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Derby 2-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Stoke City?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 42%, Stoke City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Derby) and 40% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Stoke City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Derby's recent matches and 47% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Derby's recent games and 40% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Stoke City tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 46, as Derby and Stoke City drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.27 xG and Stoke City 0.80 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derby fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Stoke City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.74 / defence 0.90 against Stoke City attack 0.88 / defence 1.31, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 48% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 23%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 47%, Stoke City 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stoke City's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.55 PPG, Stoke City 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.