Derby vs QPR – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates QPR at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 32 as Derby welcome QPR to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 February 2027 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 6W 1D 3L at Pride Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.

QPR — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

QPR's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derby at 1.30 PPG versus QPR's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Derby, 3 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Derby winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Derby trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

QPR trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 64% and QPR 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | QPR 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.26 xG and QPR 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.903 / defence 1.185 | QPR attack 1.135 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Data: 50 Derby games / 50 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 25% | Draw 29% | QPR 46%. Fair-value odds: Derby 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | QPR 2.17. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | QPR 50%.

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