Derby 1-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 33 as Derby welcome Peterborough to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Peterborough have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, Peterborough have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Derby carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Derby, 1 for Peterborough and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 53% versus Peterborough 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 43% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 2.54 xG and Peterborough 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.168 / defence 1.140 | Peterborough attack 0.602 / defence 2.017. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.067. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 2.017 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Derby games / 30 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 77% | Draw 15% | Peterborough 9%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Peterborough 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Derby (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Peterborough 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Peterborough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 77% | Draw 15% | Peterborough 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 48% | xG Derby 2.54 / Peterborough 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.168 / def 1.140 | Peterborough attack 0.602 / def 2.017 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Derby (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Peterborough xG
48%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Peterborough kick off?
Derby vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Peterborough?
Derby 1 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Derby vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Peterborough part of?
Derby vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 77% chance of winning, Peterborough a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Derby and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Derby and Peterborough in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.17) and Peterborough's defence rating (2.02), the model arrives at 2.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
77%
1.31
15%
6.71
9%
11.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Derby xG
Total xG
3.27
0.73
Peterborough xG
1.31
77%
Home win
6.71
15%
Draw
11.66
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
8%
12.65
Win to Nil
37%
2.72
1%
147.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Derby and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Derby and 0.73 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 11D 10L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 0.70 PPG from 30 outings (5W 6D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Derby's home form reads 7W 5D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 0.29 points per game from 14 outings (1W 1D 12L). That's a step down from their 0.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Peterborough's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 0.77 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 9W 11D 10L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 5W 6D 19L in their last 30 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Peterborough away?
Derby's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.86 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Derby or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Peterborough in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Peterborough runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Peterborough have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2024, when Derby 2-3 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 57%, Peterborough 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Derby and 71% for Peterborough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Peterborough in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Derby's recent matches and 36% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Derby's matches and 71% of Peterborough's.
Do Derby and Peterborough tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Peterborough 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Peterborough 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 2.54 xG and Peterborough 0.73 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.17 / defence 1.14 against Peterborough attack 0.60 / defence 2.02, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 77% | Draw 15% | Peterborough 9%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 43%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Peterborough's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.