Derby 1-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hull City travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby in Championship (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derby stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Derby have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Derby are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Hull City have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Hull City have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.40 PPG, Hull City 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Derby have won 2, Hull City 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Feb 2022, ended Derby 3–1 Hull City — a Derby win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Hull City in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 46% versus Hull City 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 51% | Hull City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.56 xG and Hull City 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.045 / defence 0.975 | Hull City attack 1.173 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 0.944. Data: built from Derby's last 11 games and Hull City's last 57.
Result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 29% | Hull City 25%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.13 | Draw 3.50 | Hull City 4.08. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Derby 20% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 12 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 29% | Hull City 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Derby 1.56 / Hull City 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.045 / def 0.975 | Hull City attack 1.173 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.398 / away 0.944 • Poisson stance: Derby (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Hull City xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Derby vs Hull City kick off?
Derby vs Hull City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Hull City?
Derby 1 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Derby vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Hull City part of?
Derby vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 47% chance of winning, Hull City a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Derby and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Derby vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.04x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 11 games and Hull City's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.50
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Derby xG
Total xG
2.65
1.08
Hull City xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
5%
19.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Derby and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Derby and 1.08 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 57 games, going 32W 10D 15L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.46 PPG from 57 outings (22W 17D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 19W 4D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 28 away games (13W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.42 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 61%.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Hull City
Blended
Derby (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Derby vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Hull City in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 32W 10D 15L in their last 57 games (1.86 PPG), while Hull City have gone 22W 17D 18L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Hull City away?
Derby's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.18 PPG; Hull City away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Derby or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Hull City in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 24 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Derby
1
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Hull City?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 4, Hull City have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derby and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2026: Hull City 4-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Hull City?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 46%, Hull City 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Derby and 68% for Hull City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Hull City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Derby's games and 64% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Derby and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Derby's matches and 68% of Hull City's.
Do Derby and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Derby's recent matches and 75% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Hull City finished level at 1-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.56 xG and Hull City 1.08 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Hull City attack 1.17 / defence 1.07, drawn from 11/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 47% | Draw 29% | Hull City 25%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 51%, Hull City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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