Charlton 0-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees QPR travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026, 20:01 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 5W 2D 3L at The Valley — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
QPR away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.20 PPG, QPR 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Charlton, 1 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
QPR in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 45% versus QPR 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | QPR 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.02 xG and QPR 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.803 / defence 1.052 | QPR attack 0.780 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.148. Data: 29 Charlton games / 76 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 34% | QPR 31%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | QPR 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 60% | QPR 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 20:01 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 34% | QPR 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Charlton 1.02 / QPR 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.803 / def 1.052 | QPR attack 0.780 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Charlton (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.94
QPR xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs QPR kick off?
Charlton vs QPR kicked off at 20:01 on Friday 6 February 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs QPR?
Charlton 0 - 0 QPR.
Where is Charlton vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs QPR part of?
Charlton vs QPR is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 35% chance of winning, QPR a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Charlton and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and QPR?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | QPR 1W.
What form are Charlton and QPR in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.80) and QPR's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
35%
2.84
34%
2.95
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.96
0.94
QPR xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Charlton and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Charlton and 0.94 for QPR, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 76 games, going 34W 19D 23L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.30 PPG from 76 outings (26W 21D 29L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.59 PPG, QPR on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 22W 9D 6L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Charlton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.16 points per game from 37 outings (11W 10D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.25 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 64%.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and QPR in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 34W 19D 23L in their last 76 games (1.59 PPG), while QPR have gone 26W 21D 29L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or QPR away?
Charlton's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.03 PPG; QPR away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Charlton or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, QPR in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and QPR runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Charlton
1
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and QPR?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 0, QPR have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Charlton 0-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 51%, QPR 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charlton) and 43% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; QPR in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Charlton's recent matches and 54% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charlton's recent games and 43% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and QPR tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, QPR in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charlton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and QPR finished level at 0-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.02 xG and QPR 0.94 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. QPR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.80 / defence 1.05 against QPR attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 29/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 35% | Draw 34% | QPR 31%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, QPR 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.59 PPG, QPR 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.