Charlton 2-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Hull City at The Valley in Championship, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.00 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Charlton have won 0, Hull City 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hull City in-play and half-time data (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 48% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | Hull City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.89 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.680 / defence 1.123 | Hull City attack 1.075 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.186. Charlton's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Charlton games / 90 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 22% | Draw 30% | Hull City 48%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Hull City 2.08. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 50% | Hull City 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 22% | Draw 30% | Hull City 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Charlton 0.89 / Hull City 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.680 / def 1.123 | Hull City attack 1.075 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Hull City (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Hull City xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Hull City kick off?
Charlton vs Hull City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Hull City?
Charlton 2 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Charlton vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Hull City part of?
Charlton vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 22% chance of winning, Hull City a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charlton and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Hull City?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Charlton and Hull City in?
Charlton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Hull City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charlton's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
22%
4.59
30%
3.33
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.32
1.43
Hull City xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
19.20
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.1 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Charlton and 1.43 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 90 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 36W 25D 29L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 32W 23D 35L from 90 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.48 PPG, Hull City on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.76 PPG from 45 outings (23W 10D 12L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 17W 10D 18L from 45 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Hull City in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 36W 25D 29L in their last 90 games (1.48 PPG), while Hull City have gone 32W 23D 35L in their last 90 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Hull City away?
Charlton's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.76 PPG; Hull City away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Charlton or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hull City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Hull City runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Hull City?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Hull City have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Charlton 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Hull City?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 51%, Hull City 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charlton) and 47% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Hull City in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Charlton's recent matches and 51% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Charlton's recent games and 47% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Hull City tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hull City in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Hull City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Hull City 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.89 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.68 / defence 1.12 against Hull City attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 22% | Draw 30% | Hull City 48%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.48 PPG, Hull City 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.