Charlton 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Derby at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Derby encounter.

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Full Analysis

The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 15 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Charlton have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charlton haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Derby (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Derby haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Derby away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derby are 0.60 PPG clear of Charlton in recent Championship fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Charlton 2W, Derby 3W, 1D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Derby winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Derby half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 54% versus Derby 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 39% | Derby 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.31 xG and Derby 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.892 / defence 1.005 | Derby attack 1.088 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.230. Data: 46 Charlton games / 46 Derby games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 29% | Derby 36%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Derby 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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