Charlton 1-1 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Bristol City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 9 as Charlton welcome Bristol City to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bristol City stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bristol City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Bristol City have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.50 PPG versus Bristol City's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Charlton have won 0, Bristol City 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Bristol City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Bristol City trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 54% versus Bristol City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 41% | Bristol City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.20 xG and Bristol City 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.745 / defence 0.711 | Bristol City attack 1.158 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.253. Charlton's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Charlton's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Charlton games / 54 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 38% | Draw 33% | Bristol City 29%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Bristol City 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 50% | Bristol City 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 38% | Draw 33% | Bristol City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Charlton 1.20 / Bristol City 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.745 / def 0.711 | Bristol City attack 1.158 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Charlton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bristol City xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Bristol City kick off?
Charlton vs Bristol City kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Bristol City?
Charlton 1 - 1 Bristol City.
Where is Charlton vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Bristol City part of?
Charlton vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 38% chance of winning, Bristol City a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Charlton and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bristol City?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 1 | Bristol City 1W.
What form are Charlton and Bristol City in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Bristol City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charlton's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Bristol City's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol City's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
38%
2.66
33%
3.00
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.23
1.03
Bristol City xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Charlton and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Charlton and 1.03 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 17D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.39 PPG from 54 outings (21W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bristol City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.20 PPG, Bristol City on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 11W 6D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.41 points per game from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.30 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Bristol City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 16W 17D 21L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 21W 12D 21L in their last 54 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Bristol City away?
Charlton's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.44 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Bristol City runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton's record when hosting Bristol City specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bristol City?
From 3 meetings on record, Charlton have won 0, Bristol City have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Charlton 1-1 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 48%, Bristol City 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charlton) and 52% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bristol City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Bristol City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Charlton's recent matches and 59% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Charlton's recent games and 52% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Bristol City tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Bristol City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 9, as Charlton and Bristol City drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.20 xG and Bristol City 1.03 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.74 / defence 0.71 against Bristol City attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 38% | Draw 33% | Bristol City 29%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 41%, Bristol City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bristol City's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.20 PPG, Bristol City 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.