Cardiff vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Cardiff, 1.30 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cardiff 3W, Derby 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Derby — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 58% and Derby 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 56% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.34 xG and Derby 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.986 / defence 1.144 | Derby attack 1.092 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Data: 4 Cardiff games / 50 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 29% | Draw 30% | Derby 41%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 50% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 29% | Draw 30% | Derby 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG Cardiff 1.34 / Derby 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.986 / def 1.144 | Derby attack 1.092 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Derby (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Derby xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Derby kick off?
Cardiff vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Cardiff City Stadium.
Where is Cardiff vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Derby part of?
Cardiff vs Derby is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 29% chance of winning, Derby a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cardiff and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Cardiff 3W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Derby in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.99) and Derby's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.09x) against Cardiff's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
29%
3.50
30%
3.30
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.98
1.63
Derby xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.63 for Derby, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 27W 13D 10L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 21W 10D 19L from 50 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cardiff are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 2.20 PPG from 25 outings (17W 4D 4L).
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 3D 11L from 25 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.44 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Derby in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 27W 13D 10L in their last 50 games (1.88 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 10D 19L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Derby away?
Cardiff's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.20 PPG; Derby away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Derby in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Cardiff
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
From 5 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 3, Derby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Derby?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 52%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cardiff and 64% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Cardiff's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cardiff's matches and 64% of Derby's.
Do Cardiff and Derby tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Derby in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.