Cardiff 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cardiff at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 12 as Cardiff welcome Burnley to Cardiff City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff at Cardiff City Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cardiff City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Burnley's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cardiff's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Burnley trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 44% versus Burnley 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 48% | Burnley 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.07 xG and Burnley 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.847 / defence 0.882 | Burnley attack 1.089 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.062. Data: 56 Cardiff games / 10 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | Burnley 34%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burnley (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 30% | Burnley 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | Burnley 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Cardiff 1.07 / Burnley 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.847 / def 0.882 | Burnley attack 1.089 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Burnley xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Burnley kick off?
Cardiff vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
Cardiff 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Cardiff vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Burnley part of?
Cardiff vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 36% chance of winning, Burnley a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cardiff and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and Burnley in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 0.85x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.33
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.09
1.02
Burnley xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.02 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 15W 8D 25L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley's form line: 11W 19D 18L from 48 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.10 PPG, Burnley on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 4W 10D 9L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.06 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Burnley in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 15W 8D 25L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Burnley have gone 11W 19D 18L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Burnley away?
Cardiff's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.22 PPG; Burnley away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Burnley won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cardiff
1
Draws
3
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Burnley have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Cardiff 1-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 30%, Burnley 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Cardiff and 35% for Burnley.
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cardiff have failed to score in 48% of games; Burnley in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Cardiff's recent matches and 56% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cardiff's recent games and 35% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Burnley tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Burnley in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff and Burnley finished level at 1-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.07 xG and Burnley 1.02 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against Burnley attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | Burnley 34%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Burnley 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.10 PPG, Burnley 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.