Burnley 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Sunderland meet at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 39. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor.
Sunderland have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, Sunderland have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Burnley's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sunderland's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Burnley 1W, Sunderland 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 4–2 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 51% versus Sunderland 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 44% | Sunderland 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.76 xG and Sunderland 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.451 / defence 0.777 | Sunderland attack 1.114 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.055. Burnley carry an above-average attack strength of 1.451 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Burnley's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Burnley games / 38 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 57% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 19%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Sunderland 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 40% | Sunderland 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 57% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Burnley 1.76 / Sunderland 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.451 / def 0.777 | Sunderland attack 1.114 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Burnley (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sunderland xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Sunderland kick off?
Burnley vs Sunderland kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Sunderland?
Burnley 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Burnley vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Sunderland part of?
Burnley vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 57% chance of winning, Sunderland a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Burnley and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are Burnley and Sunderland in?
Burnley (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Sunderland (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Burnley's attack at 1.45x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.11x) against Burnley's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.14
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.68
0.91
Sunderland xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
3%
31.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Burnley and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Burnley and 0.91 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Sunderland?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 31W 25D 19L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 31W 23D 21L from 75 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Burnley against 1.55 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.84 PPG from 37 outings (19W 11D 7L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 13W 14D 10L from 37 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.49 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 31W 25D 19L in their last 75 games (1.57 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 31W 23D 21L in their last 75 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Sunderland away?
Burnley's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.84 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Burnley or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sunderland in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 3-0 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Sunderland 3-0 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 46%, Sunderland 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Burnley) and 51% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Burnley's recent matches and 60% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Burnley's recent games and 51% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Sunderland tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Sunderland finished level at 0-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.76 xG and Sunderland 0.91 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sunderland landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.45 / defence 0.78 against Sunderland attack 1.11 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 57% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 19%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 44%, Sunderland 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sunderland's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.57 PPG, Sunderland 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.