Bristol City 0-5 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bristol City at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bristol City vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 30 as Bristol City welcome Derby to Ashton Gate Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 January 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Bristol City have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol City have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ashton Gate Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bristol City are significantly better at Ashton Gate Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derby away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bristol City 1.40 PPG, Derby 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bristol City, 1 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bristol City in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Derby in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol City 48% versus Derby 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol City 45% | Derby 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol City 1.32 xG and Derby 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol City attack 1.124 / defence 0.902 | Derby attack 1.158 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.141. Data: 75 Bristol City games / 75 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bristol City 38% | Draw 30% | Derby 32%. Fair-value odds: Bristol City 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bristol City at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bristol City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bristol City 20% | Derby 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bristol City vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bristol City 38% | Draw 30% | Derby 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Bristol City 1.32 / Derby 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bristol City attack 1.124 / def 0.902 | Derby attack 1.158 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Bristol City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bristol City xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Derby xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bristol City vs Derby kick off?
Bristol City vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Ashton Gate Stadium.
What was the final score in Bristol City vs Derby?
Bristol City 0 - 5 Derby.
Where is Bristol City vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Ashton Gate Stadium.
What competition is Bristol City vs Derby part of?
Bristol City vs Derby is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bristol City vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Bristol City a 38% chance of winning, Derby a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bristol City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bristol City and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Bristol City vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Bristol City 3W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Bristol City and Derby in?
Bristol City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Derby (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bristol City's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Bristol City's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.39
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bristol City xG
Total xG
2.51
1.19
Derby xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol City vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bristol City and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bristol City and 1.19 for Derby, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol City vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bristol City come into this having played 75 games, going 28W 23D 24L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.23 PPG from 75 outings (24W 20D 31L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bristol City on 1.43 PPG, Derby on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bristol City's home form reads 19W 9D 9L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.14 points per game from 37 outings (11W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bristol City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bristol City are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.16 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bristol City
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bristol City and Derby in coming into this match?
Bristol City have gone 28W 23D 24L in their last 75 games (1.43 PPG), while Derby have gone 24W 20D 31L in their last 75 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bristol City at home or Derby away?
Bristol City's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bristol City at home: 1.78 PPG; Derby away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bristol City and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jan 2026, when Derby won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bristol City's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bristol City
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Bristol City have won 3, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bristol City and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bristol City 0-5 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Bristol City and Derby?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bristol City 49%, Derby 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Bristol City) and 54% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Bristol City keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bristol City home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bristol City play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Bristol City's games and 65% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bristol City vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Bristol City's recent games and 54% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bristol City and Derby tend to score early?
Bristol City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Derby in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Bristol City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Bristol City 0-5 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.32 xG and Derby 1.19 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Bristol City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Derby outscored their 1.19 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.12 / defence 0.90 against Derby attack 1.16 / defence 0.86, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bristol City 38% | Draw 30% | Derby 32%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 45%, Derby 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bristol City's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.43 PPG, Derby 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.