Bournemouth 1-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bournemouth host Peterborough at Vitality Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bournemouth — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Championship matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Peterborough away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Bournemouth have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bournemouth, 0 for Peterborough and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 50% versus Peterborough 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 56% | Peterborough 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 2.56 xG and Peterborough 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.273 / defence 1.133 | Peterborough attack 0.549 / defence 1.890. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.070. Bournemouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.890 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Bournemouth games / 34 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 78% | Draw 14% | Peterborough 7%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Peterborough 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 50% | Peterborough 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Peterborough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 78% | Draw 14% | Peterborough 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 45% | xG Bournemouth 2.56 / Peterborough 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.273 / def 1.133 | Peterborough attack 0.549 / def 1.890 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Peterborough xG
45%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Peterborough kick off?
Bournemouth vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 March 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Peterborough?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Bournemouth vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Peterborough part of?
Bournemouth vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 78% chance of winning, Peterborough a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bournemouth and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 1 | Peterborough 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Peterborough in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Peterborough (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 1.27x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.89x — combine the two and it projects 2.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
78%
1.28
14%
7.03
7%
13.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.23
0.67
Peterborough xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.03
14%
Draw
13.37
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
8%
12.95
Win to Nil
40%
2.49
1%
173.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.67 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 18W 7D 7L from 32 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 22L across 32 games — 0.56 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bournemouth by 1.35 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 9W 3D 3L from 15 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 1W 1D 13L across 15 trips, a 0.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 0.69 scored and 2.03 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 18W 7D 7L in their last 32 games (1.91 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 4W 6D 22L in their last 32 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Peterborough away?
Bournemouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.27 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Peterborough in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bournemouth
2
Draws
0
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Peterborough?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 0, Peterborough have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2022, when Bournemouth 1-1 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 60%, Peterborough 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bournemouth and 73% for Peterborough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 33% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bournemouth's matches and 73% of Peterborough's.
Do Bournemouth and Peterborough tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and Peterborough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth and Peterborough finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 2.56 xG and Peterborough 0.67 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.27 / defence 1.13 against Peterborough attack 0.55 / defence 1.89, drawn from 32/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 78% | Draw 14% | Peterborough 7%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 56%, Peterborough 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.