Bournemouth 1-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees Fulham travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Vitality Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Fulham — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fulham away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bournemouth 1.60 PPG, Fulham 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Fulham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Fulham in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 46% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 51% | Fulham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.05 xG and Fulham 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.077 / defence 1.042 | Fulham attack 1.309 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.128. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Bournemouth games / 42 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 26% | Draw 26% | Fulham 49%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Fulham 2.04. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Bournemouth 50% | Fulham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 26% | Draw 26% | Fulham 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Bournemouth 1.05 / Fulham 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.077 / def 1.042 | Fulham attack 1.309 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Fulham (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Fulham xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Fulham kick off?
Bournemouth vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Bournemouth vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Fulham part of?
Bournemouth vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 26% chance of winning, Fulham a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bournemouth and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 1 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (1.08) and Fulham's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
26%
3.88
26%
3.92
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.58
1.54
Fulham xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
18.09
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.54 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth come into this having played 41 games, going 22W 11D 8L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 2.07 PPG from 41 outings (26W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.88 PPG, Fulham on 2.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bournemouth's home form reads 11W 6D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 2.00 points per game from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.37 scored and 0.88 conceded. Fulham's attacking output running into Bournemouth's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Fulham in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 22W 11D 8L in their last 41 games (1.88 PPG), while Fulham have gone 26W 7D 8L in their last 41 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.95 PPG; Fulham away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Fulham in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and Fulham runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
4
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
From 10 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 60%, Fulham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Bournemouth) and 45% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bournemouth's games and 50% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bournemouth's matches and 45% of Fulham's.
Do Bournemouth and Fulham tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fulham in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and Fulham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth and Fulham finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.05 xG and Fulham 1.54 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Fulham attack 1.31 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 26% | Draw 26% | Fulham 49%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 51%, Fulham 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.88 PPG, Fulham 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.