Bournemouth 3-2 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Bristol City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 40 as Bournemouth welcome Bristol City to Vitality Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Bournemouth have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bournemouth have posted 5W 3D 2L at Vitality Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bristol City stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, Bristol City have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bournemouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bournemouth have won 1, Bristol City 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bristol City in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 50% versus Bristol City 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 53% | Bristol City 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 2.01 xG and Bristol City 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.107 / defence 1.094 | Bristol City attack 0.829 / defence 1.712. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.092. Bristol City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.712 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Bournemouth games / 39 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 61% | Draw 21% | Bristol City 18%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Bristol City 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 50% | Bristol City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 61% | Draw 21% | Bristol City 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Bournemouth 2.01 / Bristol City 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.107 / def 1.094 | Bristol City attack 0.829 / def 1.712 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Bristol City xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Bristol City kick off?
Bournemouth vs Bristol City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Bristol City?
Bournemouth 3 - 2 Bristol City.
Where is Bournemouth vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Bristol City part of?
Bournemouth vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 61% chance of winning, Bristol City a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bournemouth and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Bristol City?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 0 | Bristol City 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Bristol City in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Bristol City (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (1.11) and Bristol City's defence rating (1.71), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol City's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.69
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.00
0.99
Bristol City xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
42.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.99 for Bristol City, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Bristol City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 20W 9D 7L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Bristol City's form line: 11W 7D 18L from 36 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bristol City.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 2.00 PPG from 17 outings (10W 4D 3L).
On the road, Bristol City have gone 4W 2D 11L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.22 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bristol City in 67%.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 20W 9D 7L in their last 36 games (1.92 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 11W 7D 18L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Bristol City away?
Bournemouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Bristol City away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Bristol City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bristol City in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and Bristol City runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
0
Draws
0
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Bristol City?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 2, Bristol City have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Bournemouth 3-2 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Bristol City?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 59%, Bristol City 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Bournemouth and 71% for Bristol City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bristol City in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Bristol City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bournemouth's games and 59% of Bristol City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Bournemouth's matches and 71% of Bristol City's.
Do Bournemouth and Bristol City tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Bristol City 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Bristol City 3-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 2.01 xG and Bristol City 0.99 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bristol City outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.11 / defence 1.09 against Bristol City attack 0.83 / defence 1.71, drawn from 36/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 61% | Draw 21% | Bristol City 18%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 53%, Bristol City 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Bristol City's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.