Bournemouth 0-2 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vitality Stadium plays host to Bournemouth versus Blackburn in Championship, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bournemouth's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bournemouth have posted 6W 3D 1L at Vitality Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Blackburn (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Blackburn have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Bournemouth, 2.00 for Blackburn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bournemouth register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Blackburn in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Blackburn half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 52% versus Blackburn 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 57% | Blackburn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.63 xG and Blackburn 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.432 / defence 1.181 | Blackburn attack 0.863 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.090. Bournemouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.432 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 21 Bournemouth games / 21 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 48% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 24%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Blackburn 4.17. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 70% | Blackburn 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 48% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Bournemouth 1.63 / Blackburn 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.432 / def 1.181 | Blackburn attack 0.863 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Blackburn xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Blackburn kick off?
Bournemouth vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Blackburn?
Bournemouth 0 - 2 Blackburn.
Where is Bournemouth vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Blackburn part of?
Bournemouth vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 48% chance of winning, Blackburn a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bournemouth and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Blackburn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bournemouth and Blackburn in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Blackburn (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 1.43x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.86x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.63
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.74
1.11
Blackburn xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
5%
20.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.11 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bournemouth come into this having played 21 games, going 12W 7D 2L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.71 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bournemouth's home form reads 6W 3D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackburn's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bournemouth are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.67 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Blackburn in 62%.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 12W 7D 2L in their last 21 games (2.05 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Blackburn away?
Bournemouth's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 2.10 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Blackburn in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bournemouth
0
Draws
1
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Blackburn?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 1, Blackburn have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Blackburn 0-3 Bournemouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Bournemouth, 70% for Blackburn — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bournemouth and 40% for Blackburn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Blackburn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Bournemouth's games and 70% of Blackburn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bournemouth's matches and 40% of Blackburn's.
Do Bournemouth and Blackburn tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bournemouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Bournemouth 0-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.63 xG and Blackburn 1.11 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Blackburn outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.43 / defence 1.18 against Blackburn attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 48% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 24%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Blackburn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 57%, Blackburn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackburn's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 2.05 PPG, Blackburn 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.