Blackburn 4-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 48%, yet in-form Derby provide a compelling counter-argument — this Blackburn vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Ewood Park to face Blackburn in Championship, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 9 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Blackburn (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Blackburn haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Ewood Park, Blackburn have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Derby haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Derby's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derby are 1.00 PPG clear of Blackburn in recent Championship fixtures (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Blackburn lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Blackburn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 59% versus Derby 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 63% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.48 xG and Derby 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.876 / defence 1.028 | Derby attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.153. Data: 46 Blackburn games / 0 Derby games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Blackburn 48% | Draw 26% | Derby 26%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Derby 3.85. Blackburn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derby (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackburn if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 70% | Derby 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 48% | Draw 26% | Derby 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Blackburn 1.48 / Derby 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.876 / def 1.028 | Derby attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Derby xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Derby kick off?
Blackburn vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Derby?
Blackburn 4 - 2 Derby.
Where is Blackburn vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Derby part of?
Blackburn vs Derby is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 48% chance of winning, Derby a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Blackburn and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Blackburn 2W | Draws 0 | Derby 0W.
What form are Blackburn and Derby in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Blackburn (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 0.88x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.85x) against Blackburn's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 46/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.82
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.48
1.01
Derby xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.01 for Derby, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Blackburn's recent record stands at 14W 11D 21L from 46 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. Blackburn haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 10L across 46 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. Derby haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Blackburn heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Blackburn have managed 6W 7D 10L from 23 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 13W 4D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Blackburn are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.70 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Pre-Season
Derby
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Derby in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Derby have gone 28W 8D 10L in their last 46 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.09 PPG; Derby away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Derby in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackburn have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Blackburn
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 3, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Derby 3-1 Blackburn.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 74%, Derby 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Blackburn) and 52% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Blackburn's games and 39% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Blackburn vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Blackburn's recent games and 52% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Derby tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derby in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Derby 4-2 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.48 xG and Derby 1.01 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Blackburn beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derby outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 48% | Draw 26% | Derby 26%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 63%, Derby 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Blackburn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.