Zlin 2-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Karviná travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zlin — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Czech Liga appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 7L across 8 road games this term (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zlin 0.60 PPG, Karviná 0.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zlin, 0 for Karviná and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Karviná in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 53% versus Karviná 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 65% | Karviná 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.55 xG and Karviná 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.838 / defence 1.422 | Karviná attack 0.475 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.299. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Zlin games / 17 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 53% | Draw 26% | Karviná 21%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Karviná 4.76. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 56% | Karviná 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 53% | Draw 26% | Karviná 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Zlin 1.55 / Karviná 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.838 / def 1.422 | Karviná attack 0.475 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Zlin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Karviná xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Karviná kick off?
Zlin vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Karviná?
Zlin 2 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Zlin vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Karviná part of?
Zlin vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 53% chance of winning, Karviná a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Zlin and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Karviná?
Record (1 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 0 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Zlin and Karviná in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Karviná (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.84x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.91
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.43
0.88
Karviná xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
5%
22.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Zlin and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Zlin and 0.88 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 4W 3D 10L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 0W 5D 12L from 17 games, 0.29 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zlin are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 0W 1D 7L from 8 away games — 0.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.88 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Karviná in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Karviná have gone 0W 5D 12L in their last 17 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Karviná away?
Zlin's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.00 PPG; Karviná away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Karviná runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Zlin
2
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 3, Karviná have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 62%, Karviná 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Zlin) and 38% (Karviná). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Karviná in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Zlin's recent matches and 25% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Zlin's matches and 38% of Karviná's.
Do Zlin and Karviná tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Karviná 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Karviná 2-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.55 xG and Karviná 0.88 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.84 / defence 1.42 against Karviná attack 0.47 / defence 1.33, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 53% | Draw 26% | Karviná 21%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 65%, Karviná 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 0.88 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.