Zlin 0-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zlin face Karviná.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Karviná travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin in Czech Liga (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Zlin — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Karviná have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Karviná's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zlin 1.10 PPG, Karviná 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Zlin, 1 for Karviná and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Zlin 1–4 Karviná — a Karviná win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Karviná in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 62% versus Karviná 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 52% | Karviná 59%). Note also that Karviná surrender HT leads in 60% of cases while Zlin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.85 xG and Karviná 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.092 / defence 1.151 | Karviná attack 0.872 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.254. Data: built from Zlin's last 59 games and Karviná's last 29.
Result probabilities: Zlin 50% | Draw 25% | Karviná 25%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.00 | Draw 3.97 | Karviná 4.04. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zlin's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zlin 80% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 50% | Draw 25% | Karviná 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Zlin 1.85 / Karviná 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.092 / def 1.151 | Karviná attack 0.872 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Zlin (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Karviná xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Zlin vs Karviná kick off?
Zlin vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Karviná?
Zlin 0 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Zlin vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Karviná part of?
Zlin vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 50% chance of winning, Karviná a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zlin and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zlin vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.09x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 59 games and Karviná's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.97
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.11
1.26
Karviná xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
25.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Zlin and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Zlin and 1.26 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 5W 10D 14L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Karviná's form line: 5W 7D 17L from 29 games, 0.76 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.86 PPG, Karviná on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 14 home games (4W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Karviná have gone 1W 4D 9L from their last 14 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
Zlin (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Zlin vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and Karviná in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 5W 10D 14L in their last 29 games (0.86 PPG), while Karviná have gone 5W 7D 17L in their last 29 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Karviná away?
Zlin's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.29 PPG; Karviná away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 29 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won Karviná 4-1 Zlin.
Zlin's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Zlin
2
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Karviná?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 3, Karviná have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 November 2025: Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 79%, Karviná at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zlin) and 57% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Karviná in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and Karviná matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Zlin's games and 57% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zlin and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zlin's recent games and 57% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Zlin's recent matches and 64% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Zlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Zlin 0-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.85 xG and Karviná 1.26 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Karviná attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 50% | Draw 25% | Karviná 25%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 52%, Karviná 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karviná's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.86 PPG, Karviná 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.