Zlin 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Round - 5 as Zlin welcome FK Jablonec to Stadion Letná. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Zlin at Stadion Letná this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Zlin) versus 1.00 (FK Jablonec). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Zlin, 0 for FK Jablonec and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 59% versus FK Jablonec 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 59% | FK Jablonec 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.54 xG and FK Jablonec 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.060 / defence 1.257 | FK Jablonec attack 0.647 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.085. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Zlin games / 30 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 52% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 21%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | FK Jablonec 4.76. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 60% | FK Jablonec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 52% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Zlin 1.54 / FK Jablonec 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.060 / def 1.257 | FK Jablonec attack 0.647 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Zlin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FK Jablonec xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Zlin 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Zlin vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs FK Jablonec part of?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 52% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Zlin and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
Record (1 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zlin's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.80
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.42
0.88
FK Jablonec xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
5%
21.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Zlin and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Zlin and 0.88 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 9W 8D 17L from 34 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 6W 15D 13L across 34 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.03 PPG, FK Jablonec on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 7W 2D 7L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 2W 6D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.76 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 8D 17L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 6W 15D 13L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or FK Jablonec away?
Zlin's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.44 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
7
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 62%, FK Jablonec 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Zlin) and 44% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Zlin's recent matches and 44% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Zlin's matches and 44% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Zlin and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letná, Relegation Round - 5, as Zlin and FK Jablonec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.54 xG and FK Jablonec 0.88 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against FK Jablonec attack 0.65 / defence 1.26, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 52% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 21%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 59%, FK Jablonec 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.03 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.