Zlin 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 66%, yet in-form FK Jablonec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Zlin welcome FK Jablonec to Stadion Letná. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin at Stadion Letná this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FK Jablonec's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Zlin's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Zlin, 0 for FK Jablonec and 4 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 63% and FK Jablonec 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 63% | FK Jablonec 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 2.94 xG and FK Jablonec 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.212 / defence 1.097 | FK Jablonec attack 1.095 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Zlin games / 60 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 66% | Draw 17% | FK Jablonec 17%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 1.52 | Draw 5.88 | FK Jablonec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Zlin (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.94 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 66% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 4.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | FK Jablonec 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 66% | Draw 17% | FK Jablonec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 74% | xG Zlin 2.94 / FK Jablonec 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.212 / def 1.097 | FK Jablonec attack 1.095 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Zlin (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
74%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Zlin 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Zlin vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs FK Jablonec part of?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 66% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Zlin and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
Record (4 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 4 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zlin's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.94. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
66%
1.51
17%
5.83
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
2 – 2
5.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Zlin xG
Total xG
4.44
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
5%
18.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
1%
113.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Zlin and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Zlin and 1.50 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 4.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 14W 20D 31L from 65 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 15W 24D 26L across 65 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.95 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 12W 7D 13L from 32 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 6W 9D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.12 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 14W 20D 31L in their last 65 games (0.95 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 15W 24D 26L in their last 65 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or FK Jablonec away?
Zlin's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.34 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
7
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 66%, FK Jablonec 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Zlin and 59% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Zlin's games and 56% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Zlin's matches and 59% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Zlin and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letná, Relegation Round - 1, as Zlin and FK Jablonec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 2.94 xG and FK Jablonec 1.50 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Zlin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.21 / defence 1.10 against FK Jablonec attack 1.09 / defence 1.45, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 66% | Draw 17% | FK Jablonec 17%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 63%, FK Jablonec 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.95 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.