Vyškov 0-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vyškov at 41%, yet in-form Dukla Praha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vyškov vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dukla Praha make the trip to Sportovní areál Drnovice to face Vyškov in Czech Liga (Relegation Round). The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Vyškov (all games): 0W 0D 2L across their last 2 — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Dukla Praha have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dukla Praha away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dukla Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vyškov 1.29 xG and Dukla Praha 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vyškov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Dukla Praha attack 0.775 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Vyškov's last 0 games and Dukla Praha's last 30.
Result probabilities: Vyškov 41% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 31%. Fair-value odds: Vyškov 2.43 | Draw 3.57 | Dukla Praha 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vyškov are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dukla Praha (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vyškov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vyškov's last 2 games and Dukla Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vyškov vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Sportovní areál Drnovice • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vyškov 41% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Vyškov 1.29 / Dukla Praha 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Vyškov attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Dukla Praha attack 0.775 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Vyškov (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vyškov xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dukla Praha xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vyškov vs Dukla Praha FAQs
What time does Vyškov vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Vyškov vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 28 May 2025 at Sportovní areál Drnovice.
What was the final score in Vyškov vs Dukla Praha?
Vyškov 0 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Vyškov vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Sportovní areál Drnovice.
What competition is Vyškov vs Dukla Praha part of?
Vyškov vs Dukla Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Round) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Vyškov vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Vyškov a 41% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vyškov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vyškov vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vyškov and Dukla Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Vyškov vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vyškov's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.78x) against Vyškov's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Vyškov's last 0 games and Dukla Praha's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vyškov Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.57
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vyškov xG
Total xG
2.36
1.07
Dukla Praha xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vyškov vs Dukla Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vyškov vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Vyškov and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vyškov and 1.07 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Vyškov vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vyškov's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dukla Praha by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vyškov heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vyškov are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Dukla Praha's attacking output running into Vyškov's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Vyškov have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Dukla Praha in 100%.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vyškov
Pre-Season
Dukla Praha
Early Season
Vyškov (Home) vs Dukla Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vyškov
Pre-Season
Dukla Praha
Early Season
❓ Vyškov vs Dukla Praha Form FAQs
What form are Vyškov and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Vyškov have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vyškov
2
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Vyškov vs Dukla Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vyškov and Dukla Praha?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Vyškov have won 0, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vyškov and Dukla Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 June 2025: Dukla Praha 1-1 Vyškov.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vyškov home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vyškov vs Dukla Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vyškov and Dukla Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vyškov's recent matches and 100% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vyškov and Dukla Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Vyškov's recent games and 100% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vyškov and Dukla Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Vyškov's recent matches and 100% of Dukla Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vyškov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportovní areál Drnovice, Relegation Round, as Vyškov and Dukla Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vyškov 1.29 xG and Dukla Praha 1.07 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vyškov fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Dukla Praha landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vyškov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dukla Praha attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vyškov 41% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 31%, with Vyškov to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vyškov 0%, Dukla Praha 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dukla Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vyškov conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.