Teplice 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Teplice welcome Zlin to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Teplice) versus 0.80 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Teplice, 1 for Zlin and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Zlin in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 46% versus Zlin 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 59% | Zlin 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.77 xG and Zlin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.871 / defence 0.996 | Zlin attack 0.866 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.379. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Teplice games / 34 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 51% | Draw 23% | Zlin 26%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Zlin 3.85. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 51% | Draw 23% | Zlin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Teplice 1.77 / Zlin 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.871 / def 0.996 | Zlin attack 0.866 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Teplice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Zlin xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zlin kick off?
Teplice vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Teplice 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Teplice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zlin part of?
Teplice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 51% chance of winning, Zlin a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Teplice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
Record (2 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 0 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Teplice and Zlin in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Zlin (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Teplice's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.28
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.96
1.19
Zlin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
4%
23.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Teplice and 1.19 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 10W 7D 22L from 39 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 19L across 39 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 0.95 PPG, Zlin on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 5W 3D 11L from 19 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 6D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.21 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 10W 7D 22L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 11D 19L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Zlin away?
Teplice's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 0.95 PPG; Zlin away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
1
Draws
5
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Zlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 42%, Zlin 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Teplice) and 53% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 42% of games; Zlin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Teplice's recent matches and 63% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Teplice's recent games and 53% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Zlin tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Zlin in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Teplice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Zlin finished level at 0-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.77 xG and Zlin 1.19 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Zlin attack 0.87 / defence 1.28, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 51% | Draw 23% | Zlin 26%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 59%, Zlin 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.95 PPG, Zlin 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.