Teplice 2-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Teplice welcome Zlin to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zlin's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Teplice carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Teplice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zlin in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Teplice, 2 for Zlin and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Zlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zlin in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Zlin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 62% | Zlin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.63 xG and Zlin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.805 / defence 1.171 | Zlin attack 0.815 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 46% | Draw 27% | Zlin 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Zlin 3.70. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 60% | Zlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 46% | Draw 27% | Zlin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Teplice 1.63 / Zlin 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.805 / def 1.171 | Zlin attack 0.815 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Teplice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Zlin xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zlin kick off?
Teplice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Teplice 2 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Teplice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zlin part of?
Teplice vs Zlin is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 46% chance of winning, Zlin a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Teplice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
Record (4 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 1 | Zlin 2W.
What form are Teplice and Zlin in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Teplice's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.67
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.82
1.19
Zlin xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
5%
19.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Teplice and 1.19 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 18W 14D 34L from 66 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 14W 21D 31L across 66 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.03 PPG, Zlin on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 11W 8D 13L from 32 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 13D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 64%.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 14D 34L in their last 66 games (1.03 PPG), while Zlin have gone 14W 21D 31L in their last 66 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Zlin away?
Teplice's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.28 PPG; Zlin away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
1
Draws
5
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Zlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Zlin 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Teplice) and 56% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 34% of games; Zlin in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Teplice's games and 62% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Teplice's recent games and 56% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Zlin tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Zlin in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Zlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Zlin 2-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.63 xG and Zlin 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against Zlin attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 46% | Draw 27% | Zlin 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 62%, Zlin 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.03 PPG, Zlin 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.