Teplice 3-0 Vlašim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vlašim at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Vlašim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Vlašim in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.01 xG and Vlašim 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.764 / defence 1.283 | Vlašim attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.085. Teplice's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Teplice games / 0 Vlašim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 30% | Vlašim 40%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Vlašim 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vlašim as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vlašim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Vlašim | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 30% | Vlašim 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Teplice 1.01 / Vlašim 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.764 / def 1.283 | Vlašim attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Vlašim (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Vlašim xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Vlašim kick off?
Teplice vs Vlašim kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Vlašim?
Teplice 3 - 0 Vlašim.
Where is Teplice vs Vlašim being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Vlašim part of?
Teplice vs Vlašim is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Vlašim?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 31% chance of winning, Vlašim a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vlašim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Vlašim?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Teplice and Vlašim will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Vlašim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Vlašim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Vlašim in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Teplice home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Vlašim's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Vlašim's attack (0.85x) against Teplice's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vlašim Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.37
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.19
1.18
Vlašim xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Vlašim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Vlašim expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Teplice and 1.18 for Vlašim, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Vlašim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Pre-Season
Vlašim
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Teplice
1
Draws
0
Vlašim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Vlašim?
From 2 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Vlašim have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Vlašim last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Vlašim 2-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Vlašim?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Vlašim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Teplice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vlašim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Vlašim 3-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.01 xG and Vlašim 1.18 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vlašim landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.76 / defence 1.28 against Vlašim attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 31% | Draw 30% | Vlašim 40%, with Vlašim to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.