Teplice 0-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Teplice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
České Budějovice have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, České Budějovice have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 0.90 for České Budějovice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Teplice 1W, České Budějovice 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus České Budějovice 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 63% | České Budějovice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 2.00 xG and České Budějovice 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.196 / defence 0.987 | České Budějovice attack 1.085 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.348. Data: 41 Teplice games / 41 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 26%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | České Budějovice 3.85. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | České Budějovice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Teplice 2.00 / České Budějovice 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.196 / def 0.987 | České Budějovice attack 1.085 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Teplice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.44
České Budějovice xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Teplice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Teplice 0 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Teplice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs České Budějovice part of?
Teplice vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 48% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Teplice and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Record (2 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Teplice and České Budějovice in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.20x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (1.08x) against Teplice's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
48%
2.06
26%
3.86
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.44
1.44
České Budějovice xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
3%
28.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Teplice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Teplice and 1.44 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 10D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.12 PPG from 43 outings (12W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Teplice against 1.12 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 7W 4D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (3W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.26 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 11W 10D 22L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or České Budějovice away?
Teplice's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.19 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Teplice
2
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, České Budějovice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, České Budějovice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Teplice) and 57% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 38% of games; České Budějovice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 62% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Teplice's matches and 57% of České Budějovice's.
Do Teplice and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Teplice 0-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 2.00 xG and České Budějovice 1.44 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Teplice fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against České Budějovice attack 1.08 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 48% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 26%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual České Budějovice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 63%, České Budějovice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
České Budějovice's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.00 PPG, České Budějovice 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.