Teplice 1-2 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 44%, yet in-form Baník Ostrava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 1W 0D 5L from 6 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 0D 2L from 6 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Baník Ostrava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Teplice 67% | Baník Ostrava 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.814 / defence 1.216 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.829 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.155. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Teplice games / 6 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Baník Ostrava 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baník Ostrava (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Baník Ostrava 33%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Teplice 1.45 / Baník Ostrava 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.814 / def 1.216 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.829 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Teplice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Baník Ostrava xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Teplice 1 - 2 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 44% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in?
Teplice (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.81x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.85
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.61
1.17
Baník Ostrava xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Teplice and 1.17 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 5L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Baník Ostrava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Teplice and 67% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games; Baník Ostrava in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Teplice's recent matches and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Teplice's matches and 67% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baník Ostrava defy the odds to beat Teplice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 1-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.17 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.83 / defence 1.32, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 30%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 67%, Baník Ostrava 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.