Sparta Praha 2-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc meet at epet ARENA in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 September 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at epet ARENA, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at epet ARENA this season.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Sparta Praha's 2.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sparta Praha register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sigma Olomouc in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Sparta Praha have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Sigma Olomouc managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 4–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
The historical record gives Sparta Praha a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Praha 60% and Sigma Olomouc 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 65% | Sigma Olomouc 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.55 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.140 / defence 1.041 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.021 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.066. Data: 38 Sparta Praha games / 38 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 28%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Sigma Olomouc 3.57. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 70% | Sigma Olomouc 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Sparta Praha 1.55 / Sigma Olomouc 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.140 / def 1.041 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.021 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 27 September 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Sparta Praha 2 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 47% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (5 meetings): Sparta Praha 4W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.02x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.96
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.69
1.13
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
6%
17.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.13 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha come into this having played 40 games, going 31W 7D 2L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.27 PPG from 40 outings (14W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Praha's home form reads 14W 5D 0L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.38 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sigma Olomouc in 65%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 31W 7D 2L in their last 40 games (2.50 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.47 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-4 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
1
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 58%, Sigma Olomouc 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Sparta Praha) and 53% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sparta Praha's games and 68% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Sparta Praha's matches and 53% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Sparta Praha 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Sparta Praha 2-3 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.55 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.13 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 28%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 65%, Sigma Olomouc 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.