Slovan Liberec 0-2 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Stadion u Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 2W 2D 5L from 9 Czech Liga matches — 0.89 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion u Nisy: 1W 0D 4L from 5 Czech Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 6W 1D 2L from 9 outings — 2.11 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.11 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Baník Ostrava's 2.11 PPG return is 1.22 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 0.89 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 33% versus Baník Ostrava 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 33% | Baník Ostrava 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 0.97 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.611 / defence 1.254 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.856 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.323. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Slovan Liberec games / 9 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 26% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 48%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Baník Ostrava 2.08. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 20% | Baník Ostrava 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 26% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Slovan Liberec 0.97 / Baník Ostrava 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.611 / def 1.254 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.856 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Baník Ostrava xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 2 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 26% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
26%
3.90
27%
3.72
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.39
1.42
Baník Ostrava xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
6%
16.17
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.42 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 1W 0D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baník Ostrava's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 2.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 0.60 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Slovan Liberec have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
4
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Baník Ostrava.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 20%, Baník Ostrava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Slovan Liberec) and 60% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 80% of games; Baník Ostrava in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 60% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 60% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Slovan Liberec 0-2 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.97 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.42 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.61 / defence 1.25 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 26% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 48%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 33%, Baník Ostrava 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.