Slovácko 3-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to face Slovácko in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovácko's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games (1.86 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovácko have posted 3W 0D 0L at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty — 3.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.86 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Zlin (all games): 3W 0D 4L across 7 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.29 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.29 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Slovácko. A 0.57 PPG lead over Zlin (1.86 vs 1.29) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Slovácko — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Zlin — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 57% versus Zlin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 43% | Zlin 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.58 xG and Zlin 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.882 / defence 0.939 | Zlin attack 0.929 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.232. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Slovácko games / 7 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 49% | Draw 25% | Zlin 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Zlin 3.85. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 33% | Zlin 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 49% | Draw 25% | Zlin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Slovácko 1.58 / Zlin 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.882 / def 0.939 | Zlin attack 0.929 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Zlin xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Zlin kick off?
Slovácko vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Zlin?
Slovácko 3 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Slovácko vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Zlin part of?
Slovácko vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 49% chance of winning, Zlin a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Slovácko and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Zlin in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.86 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 3W-0D-4L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 2.14 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.88x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.93x) against Slovácko's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.99
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.66
1.07
Zlin xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.07 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovácko come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Slovácko's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.29 PPG overall record — Zlin travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.43 scored and 2.14 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Zlin in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Zlin have gone 3W 0D 4L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Zlin away?
Slovácko's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 3.00 PPG; Zlin away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Zlin in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovácko won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Slovácko
1
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, Zlin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Zlin 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Zlin?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 33%, Zlin 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovácko) and 67% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Zlin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Slovácko's recent matches and 67% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovácko's recent games and 67% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Zlin tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Zlin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovácko run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Zlin 3-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.58 xG and Zlin 1.07 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Zlin attack 0.93 / defence 1.35, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 49% | Draw 25% | Zlin 26%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 43%, Zlin 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zlin's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.