Slovácko 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plzen make the trip to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to face Slovácko in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Slovácko (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovácko have posted 7W 0D 0L at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Plzen have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plzen have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Slovácko have seen both teams score in just 29% of their matches, Plzen in only 29%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Slovácko goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Plzen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 56% versus Plzen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 69% | Plzen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.37 xG and Plzen 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.073 / defence 0.806 | Plzen attack 0.769 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.281. Data: 16 Slovácko games / 16 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 50% | Draw 28% | Plzen 22%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Plzen 4.55. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 29% | Plzen 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 50% | Draw 28% | Plzen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Slovácko 1.37 / Plzen 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.073 / def 0.806 | Plzen attack 0.769 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Plzen xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Plzen kick off?
Slovácko vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Plzen?
Slovácko 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Slovácko vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Plzen part of?
Slovácko vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 50% chance of winning, Plzen a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Slovácko and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Plzen in?
Slovácko (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 1.07x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (0.77x) against Slovácko's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.59
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.16
0.80
Plzen xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
6%
18.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.80 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Slovácko have picked up 2.19 PPG on a 11W 2D 3L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 12W 2D 2L from 16 games, 2.38 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.19 PPG for Slovácko against 2.38 for Plzen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 3.00 PPG from 7 outings (7W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.19 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plzen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.94 scored and 0.75 conceded. Slovácko's scoring rate against Plzen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Plzen in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 11W 2D 3L in their last 16 games (2.19 PPG), while Plzen have gone 12W 2D 2L in their last 16 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Plzen away?
Slovácko's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 3.00 PPG; Plzen away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Plzen in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 3-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovácko
3
Draws
3
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 4, Plzen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Slovácko 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Plzen?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Slovácko) and 29% (Plzen) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Slovácko) and 29% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Plzen in 43%; Plzen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Slovácko's recent matches and 29% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Slovácko's recent games and 29% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Slovácko 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slovácko 1-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.37 xG and Plzen 0.80 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.07 / defence 0.81 against Plzen attack 0.77 / defence 0.91, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 50% | Draw 28% | Plzen 22%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Plzen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 69%, Plzen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 2.19 PPG, Plzen 2.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.