Slovácko 3-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Slovácko welcome Karviná to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovácko have posted 7W 1D 2L at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Slovácko, 0 for Karviná and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Karviná in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 52% versus Karviná 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 59% | Karviná 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.16 xG and Karviná 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.941 / defence 0.854 | Karviná attack 0.700 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.160. Data: 27 Slovácko games / 27 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Karviná 4.55. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Karviná's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 40% | Karviná 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 34% | xG Slovácko 1.16 / Karviná 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.941 / def 0.854 | Karviná attack 0.700 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Karviná xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Karviná kick off?
Slovácko vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Karviná?
Slovácko 3 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Slovácko vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Karviná part of?
Slovácko vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 47% chance of winning, Karviná a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Slovácko and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Karviná?
Record (1 meetings): Slovácko 0W | Draws 1 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Slovácko and Karviná in?
Slovácko (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Karviná (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.94) and Karviná's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
47%
2.13
31%
3.22
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Slovácko xG
Total xG
1.85
0.69
Karviná xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.69 for Karviná, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Slovácko have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 16W 5D 6L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 2W 8D 17L from 27 games, 0.52 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 1.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 2.38 PPG from 13 outings (10W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.96 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Karviná have gone 2W 1D 10L from 13 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.93 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Karviná in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 16W 5D 6L in their last 27 games (1.96 PPG), while Karviná have gone 2W 8D 17L in their last 27 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Karviná away?
Slovácko's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.38 PPG; Karviná away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Karviná in 4%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Karviná runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Slovácko
1
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, Karviná have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Karviná?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Slovácko 38% BTTS, Karviná 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Slovácko) and 38% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Karviná in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovácko's recent matches and 31% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Slovácko's recent games and 38% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Karviná tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Karviná in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Karviná 3-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.16 xG and Karviná 0.69 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.94 / defence 0.85 against Karviná attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 59%, Karviná 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.52. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.