Slavia Praha 1-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sinobo Stadium plays host to Slavia Praha versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slavia Praha have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slavia Praha have posted 8W 1D 1L at Sinobo Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sinobo Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Sinobo Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Slavia Praha, 1.90 for Sparta Praha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Slavia Praha have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Sparta Praha in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 41% versus Sparta Praha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 53% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.55 xG and Sparta Praha 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.253 / defence 0.706 | Sparta Praha attack 1.031 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.085. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.706 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Slavia Praha games / 30 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 55% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 19%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 10% | Sparta Praha 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 55% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Slavia Praha 1.55 / Sparta Praha 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.253 / def 0.706 | Sparta Praha attack 1.031 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Sparta Praha xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Slavia Praha 1 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha part of?
Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 55% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.03x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.82
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.34
0.79
Sparta Praha xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
4%
25.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.79 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 24W 6D 4L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Sparta Praha's form line: 21W 7D 6L from 34 games, 2.06 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.29 PPG for Slavia Praha against 2.06 for Sparta Praha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.69 PPG from 16 outings (14W 1D 1L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 7W 4D 5L from 16 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.06 scored and 1.15 conceded. Sparta Praha's attacking output running into Slavia Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 24W 6D 4L in their last 34 games (2.29 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 21W 7D 6L in their last 34 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Sparta Praha away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.69 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slavia Praha
5
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 3, Sparta Praha have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Slavia Praha) and 44% (Sparta Praha) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Slavia Praha) and 62% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 31%; Sparta Praha in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 44% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Slavia Praha's matches and 62% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Praha defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Slavia Praha 1-2 at Sinobo Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.55 xG and Sparta Praha 0.79 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.25 / defence 0.71 against Sparta Praha attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 55% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 19%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 53%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slavia Praha 2.29 PPG, Sparta Praha 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.