Sigma Olomouc 1-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andrův stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Plzen — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 44% versus Plzen 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 44% | Plzen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 0.79 xG and Plzen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.786 / defence 0.936 | Plzen attack 0.881 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.160. Sigma Olomouc's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Sigma Olomouc games / 27 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 29% | Draw 33% | Plzen 38%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Plzen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Sigma Olomouc's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Plzen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 29% | Draw 33% | Plzen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Sigma Olomouc 0.79 / Plzen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.786 / def 0.936 | Plzen attack 0.881 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Plzen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Plzen xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance of winning, Plzen a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.79x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
29%
3.49
33%
3.00
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
1.74
0.96
Plzen xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 16.7 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.96 for Plzen, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 8W 9D 10L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 20W 5D 2L from 27 games, 2.41 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sigma Olomouc.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (5W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 8W 3D 2L from 13 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.78 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Plzen have gone 20W 5D 2L in their last 27 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.62 PPG; Plzen away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Plzen in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 46%, Plzen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sigma Olomouc) and 38% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Plzen in 46%; Sigma Olomouc have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 38% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 38% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Plzen tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Plzen in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Plzen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 28, as Sigma Olomouc and Plzen drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.79 xG and Plzen 0.96 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.79 / defence 0.94 against Plzen attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 29% | Draw 33% | Plzen 38%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 44%, Plzen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.