Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andruv stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plzen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.60 (Plzen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Sigma Olomouc's 3 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 3–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Plzen in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 51% versus Plzen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Plzen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.61 xG and Plzen 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.116 / defence 1.008 | Plzen attack 1.337 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.183. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Sigma Olomouc games / 41 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 25% | Plzen 37%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Plzen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Plzen 30%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 25% | Plzen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.61 / Plzen 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.116 / def 1.008 | Plzen attack 1.337 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Plzen xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 38% chance of winning, Plzen a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Record (10 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 3W | Draws 1 | Plzen 6W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Plzen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.12x the league average against Plzen's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
38%
2.64
25%
4.02
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.20
1.59
Plzen xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.59 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 21W 9D 15L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 21W 13D 11L from 45 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.60 PPG, Plzen on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.90 PPG from 21 outings (12W 4D 5L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 9W 6D 6L from 21 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.73 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Plzen have gone 21W 13D 11L in their last 45 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Plzen away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.90 PPG; Plzen away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Plzen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Plzen 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 38%, Plzen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sigma Olomouc) and 62% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Plzen in 43%; Plzen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 38% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 62% of Plzen's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Plzen tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Plzen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.