Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karviná make the trip to Andruv stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Andruv stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andruv stadion than their overall form suggests.
Karviná have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc, 1.00 for Karviná — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Karviná — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 51% versus Karviná 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 54% | Karviná 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Karviná 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.854 / defence 0.724 | Karviná attack 1.072 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.103. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Sigma Olomouc games / 55 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Karviná 4.55. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 10% | Karviná 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.37 / Karviná 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.854 / def 0.724 | Karviná attack 1.072 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Karviná xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 2 Karviná.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 47% chance of winning, Karviná a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
Record (7 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 4W | Draws 1 | Karviná 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Karviná (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.85x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.07x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.25
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.22
0.86
Karviná xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
6%
17.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.86 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 57 games, going 21W 14D 22L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.28 PPG from 57 outings (21W 10D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.28 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 13W 5D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (11W 4D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.33 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 14D 22L in their last 57 games (1.35 PPG), while Karviná have gone 21W 10D 26L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Karviná away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.57 PPG; Karviná away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sigma Olomouc have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 6, Karviná have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 50%, Karviná 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sigma Olomouc and 75% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 68% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 75% of Karviná's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Karviná tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Karviná in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Karviná share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 26, as Sigma Olomouc and Karviná drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Karviná 0.86 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 0.72 against Karviná attack 1.07 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Karviná 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Karviná 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.