Plzen 1-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Slavia Praha at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 9W 1D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 2.60 PPG versus Slavia Praha's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 38% versus Slavia Praha 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 50% | Slavia Praha 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.46 xG and Slavia Praha 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.286 / defence 0.752 | Slavia Praha attack 1.254 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.162. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Plzen's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 Plzen games / 26 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 46% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 28%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Slavia Praha 3.57. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Plzen 30% | Slavia Praha 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 46% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Plzen 1.46 / Slavia Praha 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.286 / def 0.752 | Slavia Praha attack 1.254 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Plzen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Slavia Praha xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Plzen 1 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slavia Praha part of?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 46% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plzen and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Slavia Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.29x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
46%
2.20
26%
3.83
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.56
1.10
Slavia Praha xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Plzen and 1.10 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 26 games, going 20W 4D 2L for 2.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.42 PPG from 26 outings (20W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 2.46 PPG, Slavia Praha on 2.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 12W 1D 0L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.08 points per game from 13 outings (8W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.35 scored and 0.65 conceded. Plzen's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games; Slavia Praha in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 20W 4D 2L in their last 26 games (2.46 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 20W 3D 3L in their last 26 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slavia Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.85 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Plzen
1
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 2, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 38%, Slavia Praha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plzen) and 54% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Plzen's recent matches and 46% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Plzen's matches and 54% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Plzen and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 27, as Plzen and Slavia Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.46 xG and Slavia Praha 1.10 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.75 against Slavia Praha attack 1.25 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 46% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 28%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 50%, Slavia Praha 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.46 PPG, Slavia Praha 2.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.