Plzen 0-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plzen at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Plzen welcome Pardubice to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Plzen at Doosan Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pardubice away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Plzen) versus 1.70 (Pardubice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Plzen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for Pardubice, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2025, ended 5–1 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Plzen trading profile (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Pardubice trading profile (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 52% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.64 xG and Pardubice 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.171 / defence 0.948 | Pardubice attack 1.087 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.183. Data: 58 Plzen games / 58 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 45% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 26%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Pardubice 3.85. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 50% | Pardubice 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 45% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Plzen 1.64 / Pardubice 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.171 / def 0.948 | Pardubice attack 1.087 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Plzen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Pardubice xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Pardubice kick off?
Plzen vs Pardubice kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Plzen 0 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Plzen vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Pardubice part of?
Plzen vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 45% chance of winning, Pardubice a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plzen and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
Record (9 meetings): Plzen 7W | Draws 2 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Pardubice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.17) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.48
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.86
1.22
Pardubice xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
5%
19.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Plzen and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Plzen and 1.22 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 37W 13D 13L from 63 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 32L across 63 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 20W 7D 5L from 32 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 6W 6D 20L across 32 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.97 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 37W 13D 13L in their last 63 games (1.97 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 16W 15D 32L in their last 63 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Pardubice away?
Plzen's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.09 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Plzen or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Pardubice in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
2
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Pardubice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Plzen 0-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Pardubice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 56%, Pardubice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Plzen) and 50% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pardubice in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Plzen's recent matches and 44% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Plzen's recent games and 50% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Pardubice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Plzen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Plzen 0-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.64 xG and Pardubice 1.22 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against Pardubice attack 1.09 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 45% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 26%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.