Plzen 3-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Plzen welcome Mlada Boleslav to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 4W 3D 3L at Doosan Arena — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mlada Boleslav are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for Mlada Boleslav, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Plzen winning.
The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 49% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.73 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.041 / defence 1.270 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.084 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.245. Data: 39 Plzen games / 38 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 38% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 37%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Plzen dominate the H2H record, yet Mlada Boleslav are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 38% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Plzen 1.73 / Mlada Boleslav 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.041 / def 1.270 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.084 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Plzen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Mlada Boleslav xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen 3 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 38% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Plzen and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (9 meetings): Plzen 6W | Draws 3 | Mlada Boleslav 0W.
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in?
Plzen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
38%
2.65
25%
3.99
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.44
1.71
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
7%
14.69
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Plzen and 1.71 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 13D 11L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.33 PPG from 43 outings (14W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 1.63 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (6W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.53 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 19W 13D 11L in their last 43 games (1.63 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 15D 14L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Plzen's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.81 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Plzen or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Plzen 3-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 57%, Mlada Boleslav 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Plzen) and 62% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Plzen's games and 57% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Plzen's matches and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Plzen and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 3-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.73 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.71 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.04 / defence 1.27 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.08 / defence 1.18, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 38% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 37%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 1.63 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.