Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Plzen welcome Mlada Boleslav to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 4W 3D 3L at Doosan Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for Mlada Boleslav, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 5–0 with Plzen winning.
The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 57% versus Mlada Boleslav 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 53% | Mlada Boleslav 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.86 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.188 / defence 1.212 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.959 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.284. Data: 46 Plzen games / 46 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 45% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 30%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 3.33. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Mlada Boleslav 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 45% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Plzen 1.86 / Mlada Boleslav 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.188 / def 1.212 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.959 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Plzen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Mlada Boleslav xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen 2 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 45% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Plzen and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (9 meetings): Plzen 6W | Draws 3 | Mlada Boleslav 0W.
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.04
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.35
1.49
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
5%
21.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Plzen and 1.49 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 51 games, going 30W 10D 11L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.06 PPG from 51 outings (14W 12D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 14W 5D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (7W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.37 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 30W 10D 11L in their last 51 games (1.96 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Plzen's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.96 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Plzen or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 62%, Mlada Boleslav 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Plzen) and 62% (Mlada Boleslav).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Plzen's games and 67% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Plzen's recent games and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Mlada Boleslav 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.86 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.49 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.19 / defence 1.21 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 45% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 30%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 53%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.